Election Season Has Begun


Michael W. Crook, CAIA
Chief Investment Officer

There are 287 days until the 2024 US presidential election. Our goal in covering the election will be to do so in a non-partisan, objective way that focuses on how the results will impact investment markets and tax/estate planning. There’s not much to say right now – the Republican and Democratic conventions take place in July and August, respectively, and we’ll have more clarity around potential policy outcomes at that point.

However, we know from experience that US presidential elections can create strong feelings, positively and negatively, even if it’s too early to have any clarity around policy outcomes. We saw way too many investors sell out of their investment portfolios because the potential election of Bush, Kerry, Obama, McCain, Romney, Trump, Clinton, or Biden was going to be a death knell for the Republic.

What does history tell us to expect? Election years are usually no better or worse for markets than any others (Fig. 1). 2024 might be a good year, bad year, or average year for the stock market, but factors that have little to do with the election – economic growth, monetary policy, interest rates, and geopolitical risk, to name a few – are likely to be more important drivers of returns this year.

Fig. 1: S&P 500 returns during presidential election and non-presidential election years, 1931-2023

Source: Bloomberg, Mill Creek.

Disclosures & Important Information

Any views expressed above represent the opinions of Mill Creek Capital Advisers ("MCCA") and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information is for educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, particular investment advice. This publication has been prepared by MCCA. The publication is provided for information purposes only. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that

MCCA believes to be reliable, but MCCA does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. The views in this publication are those of MCCA and are subject to change, and MCCA has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. While MCCA has obtained information believed to be reliable, MCCA, nor any of their respective officers, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

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